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The Specter of Hope

He's Full of Vim, Vigor and Vitality!

by Rebecca Rosen, 30th April 2009

articleimages/Specter.jpg

It turns out that reds (at least the conservative kind) can go pinker!

It's a time of uncertainty for the Republican party's old guard when a Senator like Arlen Specter, one of the its oldest members, chooses to become a Democrat. Specter dealt the GOP an unexpected blow on April 28 when, free from the iron grip of strictly enforced Bush-Cheney loyalty, he decided that switching sides was preferable to adopting a maverick Republican or Independent stance. For Democrats—and American liberals, in general—this is an exciting development, even if the prospect of Specter's company is not as thrilling as that of, say, new union-friendly labor laws, health care reform, or a dramatically improved economy.

There are four key developments to note surrounding the longtime Republican Pennsylvania senator’s announcement, facts which mark shifts in the conservative approach to politics and signs of a reversal in the Bush-era growth of far-right politicking.

First, Lieberman-style party switches are not just for the conservatives who linger in liberal circles.

The loss of a Senate veteran is a huge blow to the Republicans, both in terms of image and pure power.

That's right. It turns out that reds (at least the conservative kind) can go pinker! This revelation has the GOP running scared. Party chairman Michael Steele can posture all he wants, but the loss of a Senate veteran is a huge blow to the Republicans, both in terms of image and pure power. Though Specter may not break Republican filibusters often, or ever, he still has the power to do so—and that is a terrifying prospect to a party facing dwindling support.

Second, although Specter may be switching sides to win reelection, there does seem to be a glimmer of sincerity in his conversion.

In his speech announcing the switch, Specter cited an unwillingness to be judged by Pennsylvania's Republican machine. But he also remarked that his political leanings and attitudes toward combating the recession and health care reform were more in line with the Democratic majority than with the now far-right Republican faction.

He noted, "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."

Though he may not appear to be full of "vim, vigor and vitality", as he informed one reporter (he is, after all, a not-so-healthy 79 years young), Specter is identifying with a post-election trend among active conservative voters in Pennsylvania, one that might start to be seen across the country: a shift back to the left. For a "Reagan Big Tent" Republican to make that kind of change required a feeling of disenchantment in his base. There is no doubt that Specter is, in part, attempting to win those voters who left his party by following them out of the tent. However, compare his declaration to Lieberman's Independent run in 2006. In that election, Lieberman abandoned his party in name, if not entirely in principle, on the grounds that he would lose his Senate seat to a Democratic challenger. Specter, in contrast, has repudiated his party, declaring himself both a Democratic ally and an independent force, assertions that render him a more complicated, but also more sincere, new party member.

Even if Specter is only changing parties for votes, this could mean something bigger.

Even the most skeptical of critics has to admit that even if Specter is only changing parties for votes, this could mean something bigger. Perhaps, in the Obama age, politicians will need to go more liberal to win a swing state.

Third, Joe Biden is slick.

The last few months have seen Obama and his first 100 days scrutinized for signs of change, stasis, crumbling, and soaring. Little has been said of his second in command. But this deal, orchestrated over a series of 14 phone conversations, many years of Senate comradeship and countless Amtrak commutes, was cemented by Biden. The Veep is actually doing his job—strengthening the party, while working with the President—but not by making Number One his puppet. He mostly works behind the scenes, as a liaison between Congress and the White House, acting effectively without being intrusive. Biden is the anti-Cheney, and that's good news for Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike.

Fourth, Obama, Biden, and any other Democrats who helped maneuver this party change were willing to give an awful lot to have Specter on their side.

The terms of Specter's shift in loyalty are very generous: he has seniority within the ranks of Senate Democrats based on time in Congress, rather than time in the party; he is guaranteed backing by Democratic heavyweights like Harry Reid if seriously opposed in 2010; and he is even entitled to help from Obama on the campaign trail, should he require it. Coming from Obama, this is surprisingly—refreshingly—partisan. It's easy to think of Obama as a guileless change agent, working to support established American institutions without dwelling on personal gain. However, the Pennsylvanian's switch demonstrates that Obama can do both. The Specter deal shows the President working with his party (by drawing in a powerful new ally) while simultaneously shoring up the old institution (Specter himself). In many ways, he's being as pro-tradition in this Senate deal as he has been in the economic crisis talks, choosing an institution he believes in and backing it at a high cost in order to (hopefully) ensure results.

Think of Obama's promises to campaign for Specter as a new Dem stimulus bill: it seems like a lot for a signing bonus, but it might pay off.

There's no guarantee that Specter will be a tiebreaker for the Democrats—he's said himself that he isn't an automatic sixtieth vote, and that he will oppose labor reforms like the Employee Free Choice Act, as he always has. But as a supporter of the National Institutes of Health, he may yet prove helpful to them in the realms of healthcare and scientific research. When it comes to issues of abortion rights, same-sex marriage and stem cell research, his views match up with some of the most liberal Democrats in America. In fact, he has already proven useful to Obama on a crucial vote—the decision to clear a $787 billion stimulus package. Republican opposition to that vote is precisely what drove Specter over the edge of Republican moderation and into the moderate Democratic pool. So think of Obama's promises to campaign for Specter, and the Senate Democrats' agreement to grant him seniority within their ranks, as a new Dem stimulus bill: it seems like a lot for a signing bonus, but it might pay off.

Will Specter's jowly, Nixonesque warbling dull Obama's shine? Unlikely. What's more likely is that Specter will give the Obama team more political capital when it comes to pushing social reforms through the congressional process. That's more than hope—that's good politics.

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