In this closely argued piece, Faheem Nazimi investigates the true causes of his country's problems - and identifies a radical solution.

Afghanistan: A Very Short Introduction

Afghanistan is a landlocked country located approximately in the centre of Asia, a cross-road between East and West and an ancient focal point for trade and migration. It is in an important geo-political location, connecting South and Central Asia with the Middle East. Ahmad Shah Durrani created the Durrani Empire in 1747, which is considered the beginning of modern Afghanistan and the beginning of the Afghan state. By 1751 he and his Afghan army had conquered what is now present day Afghanistan, Pakistan, the provinces of Khorasan and Kohistan of Iran, along with Delhi in India. During the 19th century, following the Anglo-Afghan wars (1839–1842, 1878-80 and lastly in 1919) and the ascension of the Barakzai Dynasty, Afghanistan saw much of its territory and autonomy ceded to British India. The UK exercised a great deal of influence and it was not until King Amanullah Khan acceded to the throne in 1919 that Afghanistan regained complete and full independence over its foreign affairs. Unfortunately this was not sustained: during the period of British colonial intervention in Afghanistan, ethnic Pashtun territories were divided by the so-called Durand Line and Afghanistan was turned into a land-locked country depriving it from access to the sea.

Afghans are a proud, noble and freedom-loving people with a rich culture. Unfortunately, they have fared badly in much of the Western media. In a long and bloody war, they defeated the Soviet Union with the assistance of the US and the West. In supporting the “Mujahideen”, the US and UK effectively trained, funded and supported extremism and also created wealth and power bases which have since turned against the West: Osama bin Laden, for example. The victory in Afghanistan was a key element in the eventual demise of Communism, the subsequent fall of the Berlin wall and the emancipation of millions of people. But what did the Afghans gain out of this? Unfortunately it did not bring freedom for Afghans living in occupied territory. The international community failed to recognise their plight. They turned their backs on them and left them destitute amidst grinding poverty. Afghans saw their country ravaged under war lords, armed and encouraged by neighbouring countries. Since September 11th, a bigger tragedy has befallen a particular ethnic group, the Pashtuns, which has resulted in them becoming one of the most vilified ethnic groups in the world. They were branded as terrorists through no fault of their own. Now bitterly angry, annoyed and frustrated, they wish to reclaim their identity from being linked to the Taliban as perpetrators of terrorism and suicide bombings.

When the British withdrew from the Indian subcontinent on 14th August 1947, the partition brought into being the new Muslim state of Pakistan which became Afghanistan’s eastern neighbour. Initially Afghanistan refused to recognise Pakistan or the Durand Line as its eastern boundary and indeed at first blocked Pakistan’s admission to the UN. Afghanistan has always claimed the North-Western Frontier Province, and certain other territories including what is now Pakistan’s Baluchistan province which would give it access to the Makran coast, as its own. Pakistan has taken possession by force of all former Afghan territory which had been annexed to the former British Indian territory. For example, territory of “The independent Khan of Kalat” was forcibly occupied by Pakistani troops, forcing the Khan to flee to Afghanistan.

Economic indicators

• GDP $22.022billion (2008 est.)
• GDP per capita $457 (2008 est.)
• Labour force 15 million (2004 est.)
• Exports 1.7 billion (2007 est.)
• Imports 5.7 billion (2007 est.)
• Population living below the poverty line 53% (2003)

Socio-economic tensions

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s socio-economic tensions in Afghanistan, especially in the capital Kabul, increased. Education led to a growing number of young people flocking in from the countryside looking for work. Dissatisfied with the leading rule of the elite, they were looking for a political change, in an attempt to find solution for the country’s backwardness without actually looking at root cause of the problem, namely the country’s stagnant economy. They followed foreign models and ideologies instead. As a result many students and others turned to the political right (fundamentalism, Islamism) or the left (Marxism or Maoism). There were many similarities between the leftist and Islamist parties in Afghanistan. They shared the same type of organisation in cells of activists, a very militant outlook, radical black-and-white thinking, and a belief in revolution: the concept of a party to lead the masses. Both of these systems were based on ideologies.

But what was the impact on Afghanistan? The country saw many upheavals and great bloodshed; civil war was rampant. The country’s infrastructure and superstructure was wiped out. The people of Afghanistan were witness to and experienced the atrocities and repression of both of these regimes which were both authoritarian and dictatorial. As a result of their repression, thousands of people were killed, maimed, and driven from their homes or otherwise afflicted. The war of the 1980s saw the elimination of most of the bureaucrats and intelligentsia, who were either killed or forced to move abroad. Afghanistan was brought to the brink of total destruction and disintegration. These were the brutal consequences of ideological systems and perhaps one of the reasons why the Afghan nation and the international community have been able to discuss and agree that the only way forward in a post-conflict situation will be a non-ideological system which promises a balanced society and will bring the people of a country, currently divided along ideological, ethnic, linguistic lines together on the basis of a broad-based government through a process of reconciliation and the rule of law.

The Missing Dimension

But the sad truth is that the most important dimension to the crisis in Afghanistan still appears to be overlooked and unaddressed. The root cause of war in Afghanistan is primarily its economic backwardness, coupled with its inaccessibility to the sea resulting in absolute reliance on an alien port in a hostile country. It will remain so for ever, no matter what is done to its economy, so long as this fundamental accessibility to the seaboard is not gained. The economy of Afghanistan, despite the infusion of uncounted billions of US dollars in international assistance and investments as well as remittances from expatriates, has not been significantly improved. Afghanistan still remains poor and highly dependent on foreign aid. Roughly half the population suffers from shortages of housing, clean water, electricity, employment and adequate education. International donors have remained committed to the post-conflict reconstruction by trying to improve access to these basic necessities. Yet, they are not committed to creating a self-sustaining state economy and state institutions that can survive the withdrawal of outside intervention, something that can bring rapid and sustainable economic growth and prosperity to Afghanistan. The same was true of Soviet Russian development projects.

The Main Obstacles

The Afghan economy continues to be overwhelmingly agricultural, despite the fact that only 12% of its total land area is arable and less than 6% is currently cultivated. Agricultural production is constrained by an almost total dependence on erratic winter snows, and spring rains for water; irrigation is primitive. Relatively little use is made of machines, chemical fertiliser or pesticides. The country’s fruit and nut exports are listed at $113m per year. This could grow to more than $800m in 10 years with proper investment. History has shown that socio-economic tension in the country due to the country’s backwardness and very slow economic growth, hindered by being landlocked, has been the main and real driver of instability. Even when Afghanistan was peaceful for at least half a century, its economic growth had been hindered by the fact that it had been crippled and turned into a land locked country.

This is something very crucial which needs to be addressed in the light of new developments in the region, as the national interests of Afghanistan now match those of the US and the international community, on which the next stage of nation building in Afghanistan is dependent. The outside actors seek to establish self-sustaining political institutions that would eventually allow the government in question to wean itself from outside assistance, as well as the total and complete defeat of extreme groups such as Ikhwanism, Wahabism (Alqaeda) and Talibanism, without realising that this goal can never be achieved with the present hideous geographical structure of Afghanistan: the imposed boundary with Pakistan on the one hand and the inaccessibility to the sea on the other.

The US and coalition forces in Afghanistan are currently losing out to the enemy because Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are operating from a safe haven, currently under Pakistani control. The enemy receives training and other military and political support from Pakistan and some other secret hands (mostly Arab countries) in this strategically important location. Al-Qaeda has taken shelter among the tribal populace and are guarded by the most inhospitable terrain. Pakistan, being the vanguard of political Islam in the region, is whole-heartedly behind this enemy (Al-Qaeda and the Taliban). Pakistan, being the historic enemy of Afghanistan, has always attempted to keep Afghanistan deprived of free access to the sea for its survival and prosperity. Pakistan, ever since its establishment, has tried to keep a weak and subservient Afghanistan as its western neighbour, so that it could use Afghanistan’s territory for her own strategic depth. The national interests of the two countries conflict, causing instability in the region. Pakistan’s strategy is to try to wear out and bog down the US and the coalition forces in the present territory of Afghanistan so that by escalating the war, the price and experience of the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan can be repeated and thus political Islam be triumphant.

The triumph of the US and coalition forces in Afghanistan, requiring the total defeat of extreme groups in this part of the world, can only be assured through autonomous control of trans-Duran Line area (the ex-territory of Afghanistan) and the sea trade route that entails. This is a totally legitimate move reflecting and assuring Afghan national interests and those of the international community. It corresponds to the vital interest and security of the world. Afghanistan appeals to the US and the international community to put the utmost pressure on Pakistan to give up its present occupation of Afghanistan’s historic lands for the sake of stability in the region, so that Afghan, US and NATO forces could operate together freely in and around the areas where Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have their headquarters and training camps. That will also ensure US and coalition military supplies can flow freely through Gwadar port located at Makran coast by the Arabian Sea. It will enable the US, coalition and Afghan forces to cut off the supply routes and lines of communication of the enemy by bringing their present location under complete siege. Laying siege to Al-Qaeda and its allies will certainly bring the enemy to its knees or force them to flee: closing in on the area from all directions will crumple the enemy from within and will reduce them to a liability among the populace ending up in their meeting their total demise.

The so-called ‘Durand Line' of 1893 was imposed on Afghanistan by the British-Indian administration through an agreement under which the areas of Chagai, Baluchistan, New Chaman and Waziristan were ceded to British-India. This is regarded by Afghans as the most horrendous blow that Afghanistan has ever been dealt by the then-colonial power. Continued occupation of Afghan land by Pakistan has been a travesty which has rendered Afghanistan crippled and landlocked. This has deprived Afghanistan of its most vital means of economic sustainability, rapid economic growth and prosperity through the autonomous control of its trade route. Recent studies indicate that a landlocked country, due to its geographical constraints, experiences 0.7 % slower economic growth than other countries. Despite the gains that the international trading system has brought, the landlocked developing countries remain marginalized. Landlocked developing countries’ share of world trade remains miniscule, accounting for only 0.57 percent of the total exports and 0.64 percent of the total imports of the world’s merchandise in 2003. Geographical realities coupled with a lack of critical transport infrastructure and additional border crossings entailing complex procedures continue to pose significant impediments to trade for land-locked developing countries.

There is little doubt that without real solutions to the disadvantages that beset Afghanistan as a land-locked country, it will be driven to the outer fringes of the global economy. Afghanistan being mostly dependant on Pakistan for its imports and exports is the greatest victim of this geographical disadvantage imposed on it by Pakistan, which has always remained hostile to Afghanistan causing tremendously high transit costs. As a result the economic growth of Afghanistan is totally constrained. The consequences of this brutal economic suffering have now emerged in the form of extreme backwardness which has de-stabilised Afghanistan. It is very important to understand that the continuing occupation of the Pashtun tribal areas and the Afghan historical territory has caused irreparable damage to the unity and prosperity of Afghanistan.

The splitting of tribal Pashtun areas and its people against their democratic will and annexation of their legitimate territory, once called by the British ‘the nation beyond the Indus’, is an unacceptable and outrageous contravention of international law and human rights in the 21st century. The international community needs to look into this matter without prejudice or myopia. It is high time that Afghanistan’s annexed territory be returned. This move is not only imperative for Afghan economic stability but it is essential and of paramount importance for the international community in the war against terror. This move will guarantee the stability, survival and sustainability of Afghanistan as well as the total and complete defeat of Al-Qaeda in the region. That will also bring an end to Islamic, fanatical extremism and militancy in this part of the world and will bring economic prosperity not only for Afghanistan but to the region and the US and Europe. We strongly believe that the people of both free and occupied territories of Afghanistan as well as most of the countries of the region will support this military and political move of the U.S. and European community, which is the only strategic solution to the conflict in the region. Redefining of the boundaries of Afghanistan will ensure Afghanistan’s access to the sea and will enable military operations by the coalition forces against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Quetta and Waziristan.

Economic Factors

The economic goal of the United States to undercut Russia and Iran in the energy sweepstakes, if that is part of the strategy in the region, is very much at stake. At a time when the fabulous Kashagan oil fields in Kazakhstan are expected to come on stream in 2013, when Washington hopes to reverse the tide of Russo-Turkmen energy cooperation, when volatility in the Southern Caucasus impedes the advancement of new trans-Caspian pipelines, Afghanistan emerges as the most realistic and viable route for Caspian energy bypassing Russia and Iran. All this is possible only if Afghanistan is stabilised: defeating the enemy and establishing security will enable investors and oil companies to operate.

Let us not forget that Afghanistan herself is also endowed with a wealth of natural resources including extensive deposits of natural gas, petroleum, coal, marble, gold, copper, chromite, talc, barites, sulphur, lead, zinc, iron ore, salt, precious and semiprecious stones. In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that Afghanistan has as much as 36 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 3.6 billion barrels of oil and condensate reserves. According to the more recent 2007 U.S. Geographical Survey’s assessment, it was again revealed that Afghanistan has significant amounts of undiscovered non-fuel mineral resources. Scientists also found indications of abundant deposits of coloured stones and gemstones, including emerald, ruby, sapphire, garnet, lapis, kunzite, spinel, tourmaline and peridot. The country’s Ainak copper mine, located in Logar province, is one of the biggest in the world. According to some reports, it is estimated to hold at least 11 million tonnes or 33 billion US dollars worth of copper. The nation’s other most important resources have been natural gas, which was first tapped in 1967. During the 1980s, natural gas sales accounted for 300 million US dollars a year in export revenues (56% of the total). There is no reason why Afghanistan should not prosper, if only it is able to regain its lost territories allowing her free access to the sea. The survival and prosperity of Afghanistan can only be assured through autonomous control of its own trade routes.

Conclusion

Afghanistan has historically been punished unfairly by colonial powers annexing its territory to the former British-India and present Pakistan. This is an insurmountable predicament in the way of its economic stability and progress and the current fight against terrorism. The stability of this region is totally dependent on Afghanistan. The present failed narco-state on the one hand and the failure of the U.S. and the European community in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan on the other remains a great concern for the modern world. Pakistan’s committed military and financial support to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the most bizarre and hypocritical way is a dilemma of the century for the U.S. and its allies. They are de facto at war with Pakistan. U.S. and coalition supply routes through Karachi are increasingly difficult and extremely dangerous. The people of Afghanistan suffer devastation. They are killed on daily basis by all parties involved in the conflict. They are losing trust in their government and the international community by the day. Therefore the U.S. and its allies need to work out a brand new strategy with a new outlook for resolving the conflict in Afghanistan, considering the harsh historical and geographical realities on the ground that currently lie in the way of victory over the enemy. The strategy must also include the replacement of the present inept and corrupt government by bringing new qualitative political changes to the administration. Moreover, the strategy must look for a new, lasting and secure supply route through the newly built port of Gowadar located in the ex-Afghan territory of the Beluch coast by the Arabian Sea currently occupied by Pakistan.

Regarding the Durand line, historians who have examined the original documents claim that it was not a treaty and thus irreversible, but an agreement. In fact Rahman Khan expressed many concerns about it and would not initial the map upon which the line was demarcated. During the 1988 Accords that brought an end to the war with the Soviets, Pakistan attempted to permanently demarcate the Durand Line as part of the Accords. This, of course, was legal legerdemain and exposed the illegality of the original demarcation and Pakistan's dishonesty at fixing the line as a boundary for all eternity. I have no doubt that with international cooperation, this could be overturned.

In short, our aims must be the defeat of Al-Qaeda and its allies, the elimination of spawning grounds for terrorism in the region and the emergence of Afghanistan as a free, democratic country with a rapidly growing sustainable economy. In order to achieve this common goal, a brand new outlook and strategy is required for Afghanistan: first, accelerating reform of the current corrupt and inept administration of Karzai with committed democratic force through a genuine process of free and fair elections, and second, securing Gowadar port, Quetta city and the surrounding areas of Waziristan by stopping Pakistan’s involvement with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda through stretching full legal territorial integrity of Afghanistan from Amu Darya to the Indus and the Arabian sea, guaranteeing the support of the Pashtun and Baluch tribes in the occupied lands. At present, after nine years of fighting the U.S. and its allies are nowhere near any substantial victory and are teetering on the edge of the abyss of total failure and disaster. A non-ideological political system plus full-fledged territorial integrity ensuring access to the sea for Afghanistan is equal to the total defeat of Al-Qaeda and its allies and the ultimate accolade for the U.S. and its allies in the region.

The author is an analyst based in Kabul, Afghanistan.